SOLAR: THE OBBBA CLIFF
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (signed July 4, 2025) rewrote solar's economics twice over. Residential: the Section 25D homeowner credit expired December 31, 2025; residential installers lost the federal incentive entirely. Commercial: Section 48E's 30 percent ITC now has two paths.
Rather talk it through first? Book a 20 minute call. Nothing gets sold on this call.
Want Josh to build it with you? Cash Flow Intervention, $497 one time. A 90 minute session that fills in the 13 week forecast with your real numbers and makes the billing changes on the call.
This page covers one problem. The other places this trade loses margin are on the solar operating system page.
WHERE THE MONEY GOES.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (signed July 4, 2025) rewrote solar's economics twice over. Residential: the Section 25D homeowner credit expired December 31, 2025; residential installers lost the federal incentive entirely. Commercial: Section 48E's 30 percent ITC now has two paths. (1) Projects that BEGAN construction by July 4, 2026 keep the credit, with a continuity window of roughly four years (into 2030). (2) Projects that missed the start deadline must be fully PLACED IN SERVICE by December 31, 2027 to claim anything. The start deadline passed a month before this research. So the 2026-2027 book is split in two: safe-harbored backlog working to meet the continuity rules, and post-deadline projects that must be in service within eighteen months.
THE COST, SOURCED.
25D expiration 12/31/2025; 48E July 4, 2026 begin-construction deadline with four-year continuity; 12/31/2027 placed-in-service cliff for late starts; base 6 percent rate rising to 30 percent with prevailing-wage/apprenticeship compliance or sub-1MW size. (Tax Adviser, Spencer Fane, commercial-solar market guides, 2026.)
THE NUMBER TO MEASURE IT AGAINST.
Solar contractors have about 7% net profit at $1M to $5M, rising to roughly 9% at $5M to $10M. The CFOS net profit target is 10.5% before taxes at $1M to $5M, the trade's average plus 3.5 points, never below 10%. You find a problem like this in the distance between those two figures. One bad job won't tell you.
Gross margin over the same bands is 22% to 23%,against CFOS targets of 24.5% and 25.5%.
THE SYSTEM THAT FIXES THIS.
Billing, documentation and collections, which is where the slow days come from.
FREQUENTLY ASKED.
See the full benchmarks for every revenue band on Run On CFOS.
