JOB COSTING

COST TO COMPLETE IS ALWAYS WRONG.

QUICK ANSWER

Cost to complete estimates are structurally biased optimistic, because the person estimating the remaining cost is usually the same person whose performance that number reflects. The fix isn't a better guess. It's a WIP process that forces the estimate to be checked against production data every month, by somebody who doesn't own the outcome.

Nobody is lying. The bias is built into who does the estimating. A project manager asked how much is left to spend on his own job is being asked to grade his own work, and the honest answer costs him something. So the number comes in a little light, and next month's estimate uses that light number as its starting point. Three or four months of that stacks into a difference big enough to change the job's outcome, and it only becomes visible at closeout when nothing can be done about it. The correction is process, not personnel.

BY JOSH LUEBKERPublished 2026-08-06Updated 2026-10-19
THE DEFINITION

WHAT IT MEANS.

Cost to complete is the estimate of what's left to spend on a job, and it's the number percentage of completion accounting uses to calculate how much revenue you've earned so far.

The number doesn't stay inside the job report either. Percentage of completion accounting uses cost to complete to calculate earned revenue, so an optimistic estimate on one job travels straight onto the company's financial statements. That's how a WIP schedule can read healthy for months while a job underneath it's heading for a loss.

WHY THE NUMBER IS ALWAYS OPTIMISTIC

THE PERSON ESTIMATING HAS A REASON TO GUESS LOW.

01

Cost to complete is self reported

The PM who reports cost to complete is usually the same person whose job performance that number reflects. Reporting a higher cost to complete means admitting the job is doing worse than planned. So the number slides toward fine instead of toward accurate, and nobody had to decide to be dishonest for it to happen.

02

Optimism compounds every month

A cost to complete estimate that's slightly low in month three becomes the baseline for month four's estimate. Each month's optimism stacks on top of the last one, so the distance between reported remaining cost and true remaining cost grows without anybody watching it. Closeout is what finally forces it into the open, and closeout is the one point where you can't do anything about it.

03

WIP reporting inherits the error

Percentage of completion accounting uses cost to complete to calculate earned revenue. An optimistic cost to complete number doesn't just mislead the PM, it overstates earned revenue on the company's own financials. That's how a WIP schedule can look healthy right up until the month a job closes out underwater.

HOW TO CATCH IT BEFORE CLOSEOUT

WHAT MAKES THE NUMBER RELIABLE.

Compare the estimate against production rate every month

Cost to complete gets checked against the actual production rate monthly rather than at milestones. A phase using labor faster than it's putting work in place will show the problem in the month it happens. Waiting for a milestone review means the correction comes a quarter late, and on most jobs a quarter late is the same as never.

Treat a number that hasn't moved as a warning

Any job whose cost to complete hasn't changed across two consecutive reporting periods gets flagged. Owners tend to read a stable number as evidence the job is under control. Usually it's evidence that nobody re-estimated it, which is a very different thing.

Make the PM show the math, not the answer

The review asks for the labor hours left, the burden rate on those hours, the material still to be bought, and the equipment still needed. A single percentage is an opinion. A cost build up is something you can check line by line, and the work of building it up catches most of the optimism before it ever gets reported.

Reconcile against committed costs

Cost to complete gets reconciled against committed costs: open subcontracts, outstanding purchase orders, and remaining labor hours. Those are documents rather than feelings. A gut feel percentage can't be checked by anyone and a committed cost schedule can, which is the whole difference between an estimate and a guess.

$10.7M+
Client AR Recovered Since 2023
48
Active Trade Specializations
60 DAYS
Average Onboarding Time
PRICING

FLAT MONTHLY FEE. NO SURPRISES.

Three tiers, priced by your trailing twelve month revenue. Which one you're in depends on how much of the work you want off your desk. No hourly billing. No payroll. The one-time onboarding fee is right here in the table.

Last 12 months revenueMonthly feeOne-time onboarding
Under $1M$1,900 to $3,300$1,000
$1M to $3.5M$2,600 to $5,300$1,500
$3.5M to $6.5M$3,800 to $8,300$3,000
$6.5M to $9.5M$5,100 to $11,800$4,500
$9.5M to $12.5M$6,100 to $14,900$6,000
$12.5M to $15.5M$7,400 to $17,650$7,500
$15.5M to $18.5M$9,400 to $22,400$9,000
$18.5M+Quoted individuallyQuoted individually

The onboarding fee covers migrating your books back to the start of your last taxable year and getting you fully operational in 60 days. It's billed once, with your first invoice. It's the same for all three tiers. Your first month is prorated, and your monthly engagement starts on the first of the first full month.

Range reflects the three tiers below. Which one you're in depends on how much of the work you want off your desk. No payroll. No hidden line items. The onboarding fee is right here in the table.

Core

You stop guessing.

You get the CFO work. Job costing built against the way you estimate, a 13 week cash forecast, monthly WIP, and a meeting every month that ends in decisions and never in a report.

Your bookkeeper still does the books.

Strategic

Every job shows its margin while it is still open.

Everything in Core, plus the bookkeeping and bank reconciliations done for you, and the job costing and WIP software set up, loaded with your cost codes, and managed every month. Use your own online software, or move to ours and we cover it.

A bookkeeper we choose does the books and reconciliations. No payroll.

Platinum

You approve, and the money side gets handled.

Everything in Strategic, plus a controller we choose who handles your bills and receivables for you the way an in-house controller would. They call vendors, pay the bills and keep the accounting current. We plan the cash flow first, and you approve every payment because it is your money.

A controller we choose does the payables and receivables. No payroll, no pay applications, no collections.

COMMON QUESTIONS

FREQUENTLY ASKED.

Because the person estimating it's usually the same person whose performance it reflects. Reporting a higher cost to complete means admitting the job is behind, so the number moves toward optimistic rather than toward accurate. That bias then compounds month over month, because each estimate is built off the last one.

Percentage of completion accounting uses cost to complete to calculate earned revenue. An optimistic number doesn't just mislead the project manager, it overstates earned revenue on the company's own financials. That's why a WIP schedule can look healthy right until the month a job closes out losing money.

Every month, checked against the actual production rate and against committed costs rather than a gut feel percentage. A cost to complete number that hasn't moved across two reporting periods is a warning sign rather than good news. Monthly is also the cadence that keeps a correction cheap, because a one month overrun is still a production conversation.

We build a monthly job profitability process that reconciles reported cost to complete against committed costs and production data. Optimistic estimates get caught before they reach the WIP schedule, which keeps the error out of your financial statements as well as out of your job reports. The PM still owns the estimate. He just no longer owns the review of it.

Three tiers, and which one you are in depends on how much of the work you want off your desk. Core is where you stop guessing: job costing built against the way you estimate, a 13 week cash forecast, monthly WIP, and a monthly meeting that ends in decisions, while your bookkeeper keeps doing the books. Strategic is where every job shows its margin while it is still open: a bookkeeper we choose does the books and the bank reconciliations, and the job costing and WIP software is set up and managed for you, on your own online software or ours. Platinum is where you approve and the money side gets handled: a controller we choose handles your bills and receivables the way an in-house controller would, and you approve every payment. No payroll. No scope gaps.
WHAT THIS TIES INTO
Josh Luebker, SPM The Construction CFO
Josh Luebker
FRACTIONAL CFO · SPM THE CONSTRUCTION CFO

Josh Luebker is a master electrician turned construction CFO, president of SPM The Construction CFO and author of CONTROL: C.F.O.S. Construction Financial Operating System.

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