CASH FLOW

WHEN YOU BUY IS A CASH DECISION.

QUICK ANSWER

Most subcontractors treat material buying as a logistics problem: order it so it's on site before the crew needs it. The cash side never gets planned, so a $180K package comes due net-30 while the pay app that bills it collects in 60, and the line of credit eats the spread. Procurement forecasting maps every major buy against the billing calendar before the PO goes out. It asks when the material is needed, when it can be billed, what deposit terms move the float, and whether stored material billing can close the spread. Same material, same jobs, months less float.

The PO date is a financing decision, and most subs let the supplier make it. A supplier's terms are built around the supplier's cash needs, not yours, and nobody at that desk is looking at your pay app calendar. Once every buy over $25K carries a mapped billing event, the biggest material month of the year stops being the month you max the line of credit. Deposits get negotiated, stored material gets billed in the cycle it comes in, and volatile commodities get locked when the bid wins rather than when the crew mobilizes. None of that changes what you buy.

BY JOSH LUEBKERPublished 2026-08-06Updated 2026-08-07
THE DEFINITION

WHAT IT MEANS.

Procurement forecasting is the practice of mapping every major material buy against the billing calendar before the PO goes out, so the cash cost of the purchase is a decision instead of a surprise.

WHO FEELS IT MOST

PROCUREMENT FLOAT, BY TRADE.

01

Electrical: the gear package

Switchgear and panel packages are the classic float. They get ordered months early for lead time, paid before installation, and billed after. A $180K package bought in March, installed in May, billed in June, and collected in July is a four month float the bid never priced. Deposits negotiated down plus stored material billing recover most of it.

02

Concrete: volume concentration

Ready mix doesn't have long lead times, it has volume spikes. Three stacked pours put $200K of supplier invoices on net-30 against pay apps collecting in 60. Mapping the pour schedule against the billing calendar tells you which months need the line of credit and which months the line is funding bad planning.

03

Civil: pipe, aggregate, and early buyout

Civil and utility subs carry pipe and structure packages that reward early buyout on price and punish it on cash. The forecast turns that into a real decision: 4% price protection weighed against a 60 day carrying cost, decided with numbers instead of nerve. Without the forecast, the call gets made on whichever pressure is louder that week.

04

Structural steel and specialty: fabrication deposits

Fabricated packages front load cash hard, with deposits at order, progress payments through fabrication, and delivery before billing. Progress payment schedules tied to fabrication milestones, mirrored by stored material and fabricated item billing to the GC, keep the sub from banking the fabricator's float. Without that mirror, the sub finances the fab shop for a full quarter.

THE ARITHMETIC

WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IN DOLLARS.

13 weeks

Every major buy is visible before it comes in. The 13 week cash forecast carries every PO over $25K as a planned event, with an amount, a date, and the billing event that recovers it. Material spikes stop being surprises that max the line and become scheduled draws with scheduled repayments, so the line of credit goes back to being a timing tool instead of a shock absorber.

$310K

A $7.1M civil contractor's procurement and billing timing was so misaligned he was days from merchant cash advances. Rebuilt SOV structures, pay app timing, and collections produced $310K of recovered receivables in the first 30 days. That's the same discipline that maps buys to billings, run in reverse.

Zero

The goal state is zero surprise supplier driven cash crunches. No PO ever creates a cash shortfall the forecast didn't already show. Buys get timed, deposits get negotiated, stored material gets billed, and the biggest material month of the year is just another planned week, boring and funded and already collected against.

THE MECHANICS

FOUR LEVERS ON THE SAME PURCHASE.

Buy against the billing calendar, not just the schedule

The field needs gear on site March 15 and logistics says order January 20. The cash question nobody asks is when the pay app that carries this material goes out and when it collects. If the answer is May, that PO just created a four month float. Sometimes the float can't be avoided, and it should never be unplanned, so every buy over $25K gets mapped to its billing event before the PO is cut and the 13 week cash forecast carries the spread.

Negotiate the payment curve, not just the price

Suppliers negotiate price because everybody asks about price. Almost nobody negotiates the payment curve, meaning deposit percentage, progress payments on fabricated items, and net terms tied to delivery rather than order date. Moving a gear package from 50% deposit at order to 20% at order with the balance at delivery can move $50K of cash need by eight weeks at zero cost. The supplier's finance team says yes more often than their sales sheet suggests, especially for subs who pay like clockwork.

Bill stored material the month you buy it

Most subcontracts allow billing for properly stored materials, whether on site or in a bonded yard, insured and documented. Most subs never use the clause because nobody told the PM it exists. A $120K material buy billed as stored material in the same cycle it comes in turns the float from months into weeks. The documentation cost is photographs, an insurance certificate, and a line on the SOV, and the return is your money back before the work is even in place.

Lock volatile commodities when the bid wins, not when the crew mobilizes

Copper, steel, PVC, and lumber all move. Bidding off today's price and buying at mobilization six months later is an unhedged commodity position wearing a hard hat. Early buyout with locked pricing trades a small carrying decision for protection against the move that erases a job's margin. The forecast tells you whether the cash position can carry the early buy, and the alternative is hoping the market holds.

$10.7M+
Client AR Recovered Since 2023
48
Active Trade Specializations
60 DAYS
Average Onboarding Time
PRICING

FLAT MONTHLY FEE. NO SURPRISES.

Three tiers, priced by your trailing twelve month revenue. Which one you're in depends on how much of the work you want off your desk. No hourly billing, no payroll, and no add-ons.

Pricing

Last 12 months revenueMonthly fee
Up to $1M$1,900 to $2,900
$1M to $3.5M$2,600 to $3,900
$3.5M to $6.5M$3,800 to $5,700
$6.5M to $9.5M$5,100 to $7,100
$9.5M to $12.5M$6,100 to $8,500
$12.5M to $15.5M$7,400 to $11,000
$15.5M to $18.5M$9,400 to $13,500
$18.5M+Quoted individually

Range reflects the three tiers below. Which one you're in depends on how much of the work you want off your desk. No payroll. No hidden line items.

Core

You stop guessing.

You get the CFO work. Job costing built against the way you estimate, a 13 week cash forecast, monthly WIP, and a meeting every month that ends in decisions rather than a report.

Your bookkeeper keeps doing the books.

Executive

You stop touching the books.

Everything in Core, and we run the bookkeeping and the controllership as well. Nobody in your office is answering coding questions or chasing a reconciliation at month end.

We do the books. No payroll.

Strategic

Every job shows its margin while it's still running.

Everything in Executive, plus the job costing and WIP platform set up, loaded with your cost codes, and managed for you every month. You never have to learn it.

We do the job costing.

COMMON QUESTIONS

FREQUENTLY ASKED.

Match the forecast to your longest lead time package plus one billing cycle. For most commercial subs that's 13 weeks rolling, extended per job for long lead items like switchgear or fabricated steel that can run 6 to 9 months. The discipline isn't accuracy at week 13. It's that nothing over $25K ever hits the bank account without being on the forecast first, so update it weekly and let the PMs feed delivery date changes the same day they learn them.
Usually yes, because deposit terms are set by the supplier's view of your risk and not by policy. Subs with clean payment history can typically move deposits down, push balances to delivery, or convert one big deposit into fabrication milestone progress payments. The ask works best paired with something the supplier values, like committed annual volume, faster payment on the back end, or early commitment on the order. If your supplier won't move at all, that's pricing information, so get a second quote with payment terms as part of the comparison instead of an afterthought.
Three things, all cheap: proper storage either on site or in an insured bonded warehouse, documentation including invoices, photos, and an insurance certificate that covers the materials, and an SOV that breaks material out where it can be billed. The contract language is standard in most commercial subcontracts, since AIA G702 and G703 have a stored materials column built in. The reason most subs never use it is that nobody set up the billing structure to support it, so SPM builds it into the SOV at job setup and the PM just uses it.
It pencils when the price risk is bigger than the carrying cost, which you can only know with both numbers in front of you. A 5% likely price move on a $200K package is $10K of exposure, and carrying that buy 90 days on a line at 9% costs about $4,500. The forecast tells you whether the cash position can absorb the buy without stress. What doesn't pencil is the unplanned approach: buying early on instinct, blowing the cash plan, and funding the difference with panic draws.
SPM builds it into the operating system during the 60 day install: the PO to billing mapping discipline, the stored material billing structure in your SOVs, the 13 week forecast that carries every major buy, and the monthly review where procurement timing gets decided with the numbers on the table. Your PMs and office run the day to day inside ControlQore. SPM keeps the system honest and brings the cash judgment to the buys that count.
WHAT THIS TIES INTO
Josh Luebker, The Construction CFO
Josh Luebker
FRACTIONAL CFO · THE CONSTRUCTION CFO

Former commercial project manager and master electrician: 150+ projects worth $2.1B combined, from $50,000 to $300M. Now fractional CFO to commercial subcontractors.

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