HOW TO BUILD A 13-WEEK CASH FLOW FORECAST.
A 13-week cash flow forecast maps every expected cash inflow, from billing and AR collections, against every known outflow, meaning payroll, payables, and debt service, week by week for 13 weeks. The output is your projected bank balance each week. When the balance dips below your minimum threshold in week 8, you've 8 weeks to act. Without the forecast, you find out Thursday morning when payroll is due Friday.
Thirteen weeks is the right length because it gives enough lead time to act on most cash shortfalls, and 4 weeks doesn't. CFOS builds this forecast in week one of every engagement, updates it every Monday, and reviews it with the owner every Monday morning. It's the single tool that turns construction finance from reactive to proactive, and the reason is boring: a shortfall you see nine weeks out is a collections call, and the same shortfall seen on Wednesday is a loan application.
WHAT IT MEANS.
A 13-week cash flow forecast is a week by week map of every expected cash inflow from billing and AR collections against every known outflow such as payroll, payables, and debt service, ending in a projected bank balance for each of the 13 weeks.
The forecast is only useful if it's current. A Monday morning update means it reflects the prior week's collections, any new invoices submitted, and updated payroll expectations. A 13-week forecast updated monthly is mostly fiction.
FOUR STEPS, IN ORDER.
Build it in a spreadsheet first
Start with a simple spreadsheet: 13 weekly columns across the top, inflow categories and outflow categories down the left, and a running bank balance at the bottom. Don't wait for software. A spreadsheet built today and updated Monday is worth more than perfect software that goes live in 90 days.
Map how every GC really pays
For each active GC relationship, note how they pay in practice rather than what their contract says. If they consistently pay at 45 days regardless of a 30-day contract, map collections at 45 days. A forecast built on actual behavior is useful, and a forecast built on contract terms is fiction.
Update every Monday morning, non-negotiable
The forecast is only as useful as it's current. Monday morning you record all payments received the prior week, update open AR for any new invoices submitted, and adjust any outflows that moved. The whole update takes 20 to 30 minutes, and it's the most valuable 20 minutes in the financial week.
Set a minimum balance threshold and defend it
Decide on the minimum bank balance the business needs to operate without stress. At $3M to $5M revenue that's typically $100,000 to $200,000, and at $7M to $12M it's $650,000. When the forecast shows a projected dip below that floor in any of the 13 weeks, that triggers a collection call, not a panic draw.
WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IN DOLLARS.
At $3M to $5M in revenue, the minimum bank balance a business needs to operate without stress is typically $100,000 to $200,000. At $7M to $12M, it's $650,000. When the forecast projects a dip below that floor in any of the 13 weeks, the response is a collection call rather than a panic draw, because you saw it weeks out instead of Wednesday afternoon as a $47,000 shortfall before Friday payroll.
THE THREE PARTS OF THE SHEET.
The inflow side has two sources: expected collections on existing AR, and expected billing from active jobs. For existing AR, look at every open invoice and estimate when payment will reach the bank based on that GC's payment history, not on what the contract says. For billing from active jobs, map each job's billing schedule: when the next pay app is due, when the GC cutoff falls, and what payment date their 30, 60, or 90 day habit points at. That gives you a week by week inflow map built on reality instead of hope.
Outflows fall into two categories. Fixed recurring items are payroll every two weeks, insurance premiums on the first of each month, equipment payments, rent, and LOC interest, and none of them change or wait for cash to come in, so they get mapped on the weeks they're due. Variable items are material purchases, subcontractor payments, and supplier invoices, which are real obligations with timing you partly control. A material purchase that could happen in week 5 or week 7 gets mapped where it makes cash sense while still meeting the job schedule, and that flexibility is where the forecast gives you room to move.
After the inflows and outflows are mapped week by week, the bank balance line shows your projected ending balance for each week. A dip below your minimum threshold in week 9 is a nine week warning, and you have time to accelerate collections, pull a targeted LOC draw, or adjust the billing calendar to smooth it out. Without the forecast, that same dip turns up Wednesday afternoon as a $47,000 shortfall before Friday payroll.
FLAT MONTHLY FEE. NO SURPRISES.
Three tiers, priced by your trailing twelve month revenue. Which one you're in depends on how much of the work you want off your desk. No hourly billing, no payroll, and no add-ons.
Pricing
| Last 12 months revenue | Monthly fee |
|---|---|
| Up to $1M | $1,900 to $2,900 |
| $1M to $3.5M | $2,600 to $3,900 |
| $3.5M to $6.5M | $3,800 to $5,700 |
| $6.5M to $9.5M | $5,100 to $7,100 |
| $9.5M to $12.5M | $6,100 to $8,500 |
| $12.5M to $15.5M | $7,400 to $11,000 |
| $15.5M to $18.5M | $9,400 to $13,500 |
| $18.5M+ | Quoted individually |
Range reflects the three tiers below. Which one you're in depends on how much of the work you want off your desk. No payroll. No hidden line items.
You stop guessing.
You get the CFO work. Job costing built against the way you estimate, a 13 week cash forecast, monthly WIP, and a meeting every month that ends in decisions rather than a report.
Your bookkeeper keeps doing the books.
You stop touching the books.
Everything in Core, and we run the bookkeeping and the controllership as well. Nobody in your office is answering coding questions or chasing a reconciliation at month end.
We do the books. No payroll.
Every job shows its margin while it's still running.
Everything in Executive, plus the job costing and WIP platform set up, loaded with your cost codes, and managed for you every month. You never have to learn it.
We do the job costing.
FREQUENTLY ASKED.
